Hi,
vorgestern las ich in Zusammenhang mit diesem Thema folgenden amerikanischen Beitrag von Paul, NA5N auf QRP-L.
Sehr lehrreich und interessant wie ich finde:
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Gang,
I was disappointed. As active region neared the center of the sun, it went very quiet past day or so. Then ... from a B1 background level, an X3.4 solar flare occured a couple of hours ago as I write this ...
13DEC 0214UTC = 12DEC 2114EST/1914MST
This looks as if it could be a biggie, and certainly plenty of entertainment over the next 2-3 days. Energetic protons >100MeV began arriving at Earth less than an hour later, traveling a good fraction of the speed of light.
> >30MeV is considered ionizing radiation. On the sunlit side of earth right now, the D-layer is highly ionized, causing a total HF blackout to 20MHz, though subsiding a bit in the past 30 minutes to around 15MHz. Even here on the dark side of the planet, I hear very few signals between the AM broadcast band (mostly groundwave stations right now) to about 5.5MHz.
>
There is no evidence that this ionizing radiation has reached the earths surface, known as a ground-level event or GLE. On the otherhand, these protons are also hitting the earth on the sun facing side of the earth, so the detectors in the U.S. are kind of worthless right now. The resulting radiation is more of an uppper atmosphere effect which cause concern to the airlines for passenger radiation exposure and possible electronic failures.
It also makes you wonder what concerns there might be inside of NASA regarding the Space Shuttle astronauts, not having much of the Earth's atmosphere to shield them. Energetic protons flying through integrated circuits can cause junction failures, an additional concern.
These protons enter the atmosphere, producing secondary particle collisions that produces increased radiation levels in the upper atmosphere. When the immediate radiation storm subsides, the E/F layers on the sunlit side of the earth will be very reflective with an above normal MUF.
These protons are also entering the polar regions which have to be generating some spectacular aurora right now up north. Not to mention a strong Polar Cap Absorption event, which has the same effect as a near HF blackout for those in the higher latitudes.
When the sun rises tomorrow over the Americas, the energetic protons will ionize the atmosphere above our heads, making our E/F layers more reflective and a higher MUF, even though the solar flare is long over. However, it probably won't be enough to ionize the D-layer ... meaning tomorrow during the day (particular morning hours U.S.) is a good time to get on the air with a higher MUF and a quiet D-layer. Since the E/F layers EAST of us will still be active, it could be favorable for strong east-west paths into Europe QRP.
GEOMAGNETIC STORM.
This solar flare occured smack in the middle of the sun ... the absolute ideal position for a coronal mass ejection (CME) to deliver a full blow to the Earth. Region 0930 is centered both in longitude and latitude, meaning the CME will hit us almost directly, AND the full force of the CME will ride along the plane of the Interplantary Magnetic Field (IMF). In short, we'll get a fairly strong and direct hit in a day or two, which will no doubt trigger a MAJOR, if not a SEVERE geomagnetic storm. This is NOT a "glancing blow" event -hi.
WHEN WILL IT HIT?
NOAA doesn't give much of a prediction, other than to say "on 14-15 DEC." Of course, much of that is due to the SOHO satellite being partially inoperative right now, so images and trajectory of the CME can not be made.
So, let's figure it out ourselves.
The speed of the shockwave from the CME was measured at 0244UTC at 1532km/s, or a fairly strong shockwave (anything >1000km/s is considered a major shockwave).
1532km/s x 60 sec. x 60 min. = 5.5^6km/hr
With the sun 150,000,000km away, divided by 5.5^6km/hr = 27hrs travel time.
However, the shockwave slows down as it travels away from the sun, with an ESTIMATE of about 85% (this is the biggest uncertainty in calculating arrival time. However, since it is traveling along the IMF fairly directly, I'm going to stick to the fastest 85% estimate).
Therefore, 85% slowing of 27hrs = 32hrs = 1d 8h travel time
Flare 13DEC 02UTC + 1d 8h = 14DEC 1000UTC = 14DEC 0500EST/0300MST
Thus, we can expect the shockwave to arrive, and the geomagnetic storm to begin about sunrise 14DEC on the eastcoast US, and mid-morning to noon 14DEC in the UK/western Europe. Arriving at 85% of its velocity, the shockwave should hit earth fairly directly at 1532 x 85% = 1300km/s, or a fairly strong hit that will no doubt trigger a SEVERE geomagnetic storm with K indices hitting 7, perhaps all the way to 9. Such a severe compression of our magnetosphere will cause a long duration geomagnetic storm, lasting 12-18 hours. There will be very high and bursty noise levels leaving the bands fairly useless most of 14DEC.
Along with the shockwave will be a wall of solar particles, many of which will be funneled along the Earth's magnetic field into the polar regions, fueling a strong aurora. If the >10MeV proton event is still continuing when the shockwave hits, it will fuel the aurora further. In short, when the shockwave hits, there could be very good auroras blowing fairly southward wherever local midnight is when the shockwave occurs.
*IF* the shockwave arrives early morning 14DEC as quasi-predicted above, it means those of us in western Europe through the Americas will likely miss the show. But ... we certainly won't miss the geomagnetic storm!
It is always difficult to predict the nature and intensity of an arriving shockwave (there are numerous factors that could skew the above calculated arrival time by many hours). That's my guess and I'm sticking to it -hi. A shockwave of 1300km/s has the *potential* of causing more severe problems above lousy HF communications, such as problems with electrical systems. Again, the potential is there, but no way of predicting anything specific.
If the electrical power goes out somewhere - GET ON THE AIR. I have 1st hand experience of being on the air when the westcoast US went dark about 10 years ago. 40M was so quiet, it sounded like 2M over the repeater! You'll just have to see what band has minimal noise for some unique ground/skip propagation. Of course, that failure was not due to a geomagnetic storm, so the noise from that was not present.
I always enjoy sharing my knowledge on the solar phenomenon after a solar flare and geomagnetic storm, but this is a unique opportunity to observe the effects BEFORE it happens. By watching what happens over the next 2-3 days, with the above information, it should strengthen your knowledge and confirm your understanding on solar/geomagnetic storms. I can tell you, for those QRPers who have followed these posts over the years, you have a far higher understanding than the vast majority of hams.
If I learn anything new or interesting when I arrive at work tomorrow at the observatory, I'll pass it on.
72, Paul NA5N
PS - Just in case, I'd have a flashlight and a couple of candles ready 
PPS - Most electric grid failures occur with a shockwave >1600km/s
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72 Hannes
gibt es übrigens auch verschiedene ganz tolle "Ein Chip Lösungen". Die beste ist meiner Ansicht nach der PK4 von Jackson Harbor Press, der findet bei mir im Hegau in der Altoids-Dose sogar noch Platz und es gibt ihn bei QRPProject.